DELVING INTO DELAWARE – AT 7:01 A.M. ET:  Remember Delaware?  Christine O'Donnell?  Witchcraft?  That was the big story two weeks ago. 

The battle is over Joe Biden's Senate seat.  O'Donnell, now the GOP nominee, who got the worst press in the history of cold type, is running anywhere from 10 to 15 points behind her Democratic opponent, Christ Coons, a man who once described himself as a "bearded Marxist."  What is it about Delaware?  It seems to be home to quirky candidates and credit-card companies. 

Here is the latest:

As Rep. Michael N. Castle (R) ponders a write-in campaign for Delaware's open Senate seat, it became clear Monday that there's more at stake than his political legacy.

A Rasmussen Reports poll found that a Castle write-in bid could breathe new life into the candidacy of GOP nominee Christine O'Donnell, the tea-party-backed conservative pundit who has been widely dismissed as too conservative to win the general election

According to the poll, a Castle write-in candidacy would derive its support most directly from supporters of Democratic hopeful Chris Coons. The poll found Castle would cut into Coons' support by at least 5 percent, potentially more, turning a likely blowout for Democrats into a more competitive contest.

The survey of 500 likely Delaware voters on Sunday gave Coons 49 percent, compared with 40 percent for O'Donnell and 5 percent for a Castle write-in, according to Rasmussen, which became the first polling firm to survey the effect of a Castle write-in campaign. The 9-point difference between Coons and O'Donnell is a far cry from the 15-point or larger disadvantage reported by three separate public polls earlier in the month.

"Castle has not indicated that he will run a write-in campaign and it is likely that his support could increase if he were to do so," the Rasmussen findings noted. "Rasmussen Reports did ask Castle supporters who they would vote for in a two-person race and virtually all said either Coons or not sure."

Castle has until Thursday afternoon to make a decision.

COMMENT:  With poll numbers like that, I doubt that Castle will jump in.  But Christine O'Donnell is at 40%.  Victory will be very difficult for her, especially after the press attacks she sustained, but not impossible.  If she can move to within six points or so of Coons in the next two to three weeks, a last-minute surge, similar to the one that got her the GOP nomination, isn't out of the question.

September 28, 2010